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Model Prediksi Kejadian Demam Berdarah Dengue (DBD) Berdasarkan Faktor Iklim di Kota Bogor, Jawa Barat

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Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever (DHF) presents a serious health problem in Indonesia. Dengue viruses are transmitted to human through the biting of infected mosquitoes, especially Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus. The occurrence of variation and climate change will Affect the growth areas of mosquitoes. This situation can influence on the emergence of dengue fever cases. In this paper will discuss the predictions of the mathematical model of considering the incidence of DHF with climatic factors.

The research design was a retrospective study with the data collected is dengue incidence and climate include temperature, rainfall, humidity and rainy days since 2002-2010. Data analysis was performed using Minitab 16.0 software statistical time series.

The results showed that R2 varied between 0.65 to 0.99. The highest R2 value of the regression equation obtained in August, September and October is 0.99 and the lowest in April with a R2 value of 0.65.

The results of predictions based on 4 predictors (precipitation, rainy days, temperature and humidity) with the incidence of DHF is actually not much different, except in April. It can be concluded that according to linear predictive models of dengue is influenced by climatic factors (precipitation, rainy days, temperature and humidity) 2 months before and 1 month prior dengue incidence.

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Detail Information

Series Title

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Call Number

Buletin Penelitian Kesehatan, 42 (4) : 249-256

Publisher

Jakarta : Sekretariat Balitbangkes., 2014

Collation

8p

Language

ISBN/ISSN

0125-9695

Classification

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Content Type

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Media Type

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Carrier Type

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Edition

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Subject(s)

CLIMATE
SEVERE DENGUE

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