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Simulasi Prediksi Probabibilitas Awal Musim Hujan dan Panjang Musim Hujan di Zom 126 Denpasar

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The probability forecast simulation of Rainy Season Onset and the Lenght of Season based on Indonesia SST, Nin034 SST, and IODM SST Anomalies as predictors, have been done over Seasonal Forecast Area (SFA) 126 Denpasar. This SFA was chosen as a case in relation to it's monsoonal rainfall pattern. In this SFA there were clearly different condition between Rainy and Dry Seasons. Basically the peak of Rainy and Dry Seasons only happen once a year. The peak of Rainy Season commonly takes place during early year but Dry Season occurs in the middle year. The probability forecast simulation of SF A 126 Denpasar was computed base on predictors condition at once. Time lag of3, 2,1 month(s) of predictors preceded the earliest onset of season have been examined. Time lags used data which have the most significant value of determination coefficient R2 (taken from multi linear regression equation) should be denoted as input for providing the probability forecast simulations. Results show that Indonesia SSTA has significantly played a role for determining the . onset of seasons over SFA 126 Denpasar, whether earlier onset or longer ones, especially during the weak of Nin034 and IODM SSTAs. Meanwhile the other predictors condition were denoted to strengthen and weaken the onset of seasons.

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Ketersediaan

Informasi Detail

Judul Seri

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No. Panggil

Jurnal Meteorologi dan Giofisi;11(1)2010:1-13

Penerbit

Jakarta : Badan Meteorologi Klimatologi dan Giofisika., 2010

Deskripsi Fisik

13p.

Bahasa

ISBN/ISSN

1411-3082

Klasifikasi

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Tipe Isi

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Tipe Media

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Tipe Pembawa

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Edisi

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Subjek

pain
FORECASTING
SEASANS

Info Detail Spesifik

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Pernyataan Tanggungjawab

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Versi lain/terkait

Lampiran Berkas

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